What is the real market share for Macintosh?
I flew on Virgin America recently and noted that, including myself, five of the six people in my row opened Macintosh computers after the flight took off. That got me to thinking about what the real market share of the Macintosh computer is.
Most analysts cite that Apple, as a company, sells a few percent of the personal computers sold in the world each year. Apple is selling Macintoshes at a rate of about 10M per year; PC sales worldwide were around 270M in 2008. That would make Apple’s market share around 4%. So this is the truth. But is it truth that actually matters to anyone?
The reason to care about Apple’s market share is to get a clear idea of what impact Apple has in the computer industry. The market share of computers used by people in row 12 of that Virgin American flight was 83%. Big difference between 4% and 83%. Except that neither number tells you anything about what really matters, which is: How many software developers are making Macintosh programs for sale (relative to Windows) and how many web developers believe that they need to support the Macintosh with plug-ins, testing, and design awareness?
I don’t think there is a single factory (probably including the ones that Apple pays to build Macintoshes) that buys Macintosh computers to control the manufacturing process. If that was considered a market, Apple would have 0% market share. I certainly haven’t seen any bank tellers, airline clerks, hotel clerks, or other service people using Macintosh computers. I’m almost certain that the tens of thousands of customer service people we talk to on 800 calls don’t use Macintosh computers, although I’ve never visited one of those call centers.
In other words, I don’t think it is useful to total up every personal computer sold worldwide and call that a “market”, since it is composed of multiple markets, each of which has different dynamics. The market that interests me is that one composed of people who choose, buy and install software on their own computer and of people who use their computer to engage in commercially interesting activities (like buying stuff or searching for stuff).
i’m inclined to believe (but can’t back up with statistics; any researches offering help on this are welcome!) that at least half the computer sold to run Windows in the world are not really “personal” computers. That would mean that Apple’s share of the real market is closer to 10% than 4% (since every Macintosh is bought by a human being).
And, if you imagine that Apple’s sale of Macintosh computer outside the US isn’t quite as broad as it here, you might think that Apple’s share of “the market for computer bought by human beings in the US” is even higher, closer to 15-20%. That makes Apple’s design decisions much more relevant to the current market than it would otherwise appear.
September 1st, 2009 at 4:55 am
Excellent piece, Stewart, and as you correctly point out Apple’s position with the Mac isn’t about overall market share, it’s really a combination of other factors; not the least of which is leadership in human factors/interface technologies and design.
Does anyone really care that direct marketer ACDE has a 10.2 percent market share? i think not. the market has gone consumer quickly. In a consumer market there are no magazines called “Toaster,” “ToasterWorld” or “Toaster Week” and no one cares about heating filaments, although consumers do care how a device may look in their newly remodeled kitchen, and wether or not that device burns bread the way the consumer prefers it, with little intervention.
Apple’s strength today is wildly different than it was just 10 years ago. For whatever reason this gets overlooked in most discussions– which seem to be rooted in late 1980′d logic.
once again, great writing and a well thought out point Stew.
Best,
Jim “Farmer” Forbes
Escondidio, CA ( but headed for Colorado soon)
September 4th, 2009 at 7:32 am
I think browser share is more useful statistic.
http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/12/01/mac-internet-share-hits-record-882-windows-drops-below-90/
Mac is close to your 10% number.
From a vendor’s perspective, any even more important stat would be average spend per user on third party software and/or ecommerce transactions. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a significant skew (to the upside) here.
September 13th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
Hi Stew,
It’s hard to believe that I’ve been using a Mac for over 25 years now, and I’ve watched Apple’s influence on the industry closely since the Apple II days. I agree with what you say, but I’ve always thought that your point was true. Even in the the mid-90’s, Apple’s weak days, I would always have people intrigued by and asking me about my Mac. So many many more people wanted Macs than were able to use them then. Many wanted Macs but their companies had policies to keep the Mac out. I see more and more anti-Macintosh policies falling by the wayside as more and more factors tilt in favor of the Macintosh. I think that this momentum is leading to increasing rates of Macintosh market share gain. Soon we will see 83% of many other groups using Macs.
Best Regards,
Stu Berman
Palo Alto
October 7th, 2009 at 9:40 pm
A study released today provides another interesting way to slice the discussion of PC/Mac market share:
http://theappleblog.com/2009/10/07/study-finds-that-85-percent-of-mac-owners-also-have-a-pc/
October 8th, 2009 at 7:39 pm
This article may provide additional insight into the growing penetration of Macs among certain groups of the population. http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/09/how_many_of_you_use_macs.php
November 30th, 2009 at 7:35 am
I’ve been doing some consulting for several different startups recently. In every case, virtually every laptop used were Apple’s, to the tune of probably 90% market share. Not to mention offices littered with iMacs and Mac Minis. Apple’s market share where users are not dependent on some legacy app is incredibly high. I think its only the old school corporations with generations of cruft that are sticking with PCs.
December 1st, 2009 at 12:16 am
you said:
“since every Macintosh is bought by a human being”
As is every PC. If you are trying to say some PC’s are bought by companies while Mac’s are not, that is wrong as well. Plenty of Mac’s are bought by companies.
So a proper analysis would not only discount PC’s for business purchases, but discount Mac’s as well.