Snowball Effect: It’s Not That Bad

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by Stewart November 16th, 2008

During the whole stock market crash and credit crisis during the past two months, I’ve been reading Alice Schroeder’s biography of Warren Buffett. (It’s a big book and he’s still alive!) I highly recommend reading this book if you’re feeling lousy about the financial and economic crisis; you get an incredible perspective on the highs and lows in the U.S. economy over the past 60 years. I particularly enjoyed reading the following paragraph and remembering what it felt like to me, as a newly minted business editor trying to maintain some perspective in a rough time:

“By mid-1979, the stock market was sunk in gloom, and orders for stocks, Buffett said were placed “with an eyedropper.” The Dow had languished for a decade, bucking and stalling in snorts and gasps, like a beat-up car with a faulty carburetor. Its latest stall-out took back down to the familiar territory of the mid-800s. Gerald Ford’s replacement in Washington, Jimmy Carter, wore Mister Rogers sweaters to promote energy conservation; it backfired and he seemed to embody the United States’ impotence in dealing with Iran, where the Ayatollah Khomeini had deposed the Shah. The empress would no longer waltz around the dance floor at the Iranian Embassy. A partial meltdown at the Three Mile Island nuclear plant released radioactive material into the atmosphere; inflation galloped at double digits; and lines formed at the gas pumps. Business Week declared “The Death of Equities,” as if no one would ever buy stocks again. A mood of deep pessimism settled on the country.”

I remember the Misery Index, which Jimmy Carter referred to often. It rose from 13% when he was elected to 22% by the time he lost to Ronald Reagan. Right now, it’s at around 11% depending on exactly when you take the measure of inflation and unemployment.

2 Responses to “Snowball Effect: It’s Not That Bad”

  1. Michelle Bonat Says:

    Stewart - Your comments are very refreshing and give quite a good perspective as we turn the new year. I posted your wisdom on my blog with full credit www.26waves.com. Regards, Michelle

  2. Ron Davis Says:

    I agree with Michelle. Not many, except perhaps a few oldtimers like Buffett can rember past last year. I received my milatary discharge in 1969 and set about the task of making my fortune on Wall Street just as 1970 rang in. Those were indead tough times to be associated with any aspect of the market. As a young IB with a highly respected Wall Street firm (Think Warren Buffett’s loan), the bonuses then, compared to the ones handed out in the early part of this decade, hardly seem like a bonus. Making money was very difficult, but those of us who resisted the temptation to throw in the towel, lived to reap the rewards.

    The problems of today will be overcome just as the issues that face my generation in the ‘70 and the ones faced by our parents and grandparents in earlier times were overcome through faith in ourselves and hardwork.

    As I sit back and look at news on television and read what today passes as journalism in newspapers, I am amazed at how susceptable we have become to the negatove. Everywhere I look I see opportunity. Everywhere they look they see dispare.

    Thanks for your optimistic words.

    Regards,

    Ron Davis

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