Archive for November, 2008

Snowball Effect: It’s Not That Bad

Sunday, November 16th, 2008

During the whole stock market crash and credit crisis during the past two months, I’ve been reading Alice Schroeder’s biography of Warren Buffett. (It’s a big book and he’s still alive!) I highly recommend reading this book if you’re feeling lousy about the financial and economic crisis; you get an incredible perspective on the highs and lows in the U.S. economy over the past 60 years. I particularly enjoyed reading the following paragraph and remembering what it felt like to me, as a newly minted business editor trying to maintain some perspective in a rough time:

“By mid-1979, the stock market was sunk in gloom, and orders for stocks, Buffett said were placed “with an eyedropper.” The Dow had languished for a decade, bucking and stalling in snorts and gasps, like a beat-up car with a faulty carburetor. Its latest stall-out took back down to the familiar territory of the mid-800s. Gerald Ford’s replacement in Washington, Jimmy Carter, wore Mister Rogers sweaters to promote energy conservation; it backfired and he seemed to embody the United States’ impotence in dealing with Iran, where the Ayatollah Khomeini had deposed the Shah. The empress would no longer waltz around the dance floor at the Iranian Embassy. A partial meltdown at the Three Mile Island nuclear plant released radioactive material into the atmosphere; inflation galloped at double digits; and lines formed at the gas pumps. Business Week declared “The Death of Equities,” as if no one would ever buy stocks again. A mood of deep pessimism settled on the country.”

I remember the Misery Index, which Jimmy Carter referred to often. It rose from 13% when he was elected to 22% by the time he lost to Ronald Reagan. Right now, it’s at around 11% depending on exactly when you take the measure of inflation and unemployment.