It is really interesting watching the progress of Facebook Platform, introduced just more than a month ago. We’ve been in the industry for more than two decades now and have seen a bunch of platforms be introduced, adopted and dispersed (well, not all of them actually achieved real adoption).

There’s a distinct pattern that you can observe for platform adoption and we’re willing to bet that it will be true for Facebook Platform too. It involves the following stages: 1) Introduction. Developers get excited and start building quick apps for the platform. 2) Customers use the applications and are disappointed. 3) Really motivated developers dig in and learn how to use the platform to do something really useful. 4) Outstanding new applications appear and generate significant growth. The time between 1) and 4) ranges from six months (new videogame machines, new internet APIs) to two years (new operating systems).

The very first instance of this phenomenon in my experience was VisiCalc for the Apple II. It was introduced more than two years after the first Apple II and transformed it into a growth phenomenon. The application developers didn’t really know what packaged software was: they had to learn how to program for the machine AND the operating system; they had to watch other programmers write software that didn’t work; and they had to get enough experience with the system to be able to come up with new ideas.

The first applications for Facebook are pretty disappointing. Most of the applications are designed to promote the self interest of the developer rather than provide real service to users. Some of the worst even make you leave Facebook and go to the developers web site to actually do anything. Users are too smart to adopt this kind of lazy or sloppy application design.

The newest phenomenon (all of four weeks after introduction!) is watching Facebook users remove applications because the apps don’t do enough to even take up screen space in the left column of the Facebook home page (stage 2 of the process of adoption). Invisible to most of us (so far) are the developers who are really digging in to figure out how to exploit Facebook. If my schedule is right, their apps should start showing up between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

What are successful Facebook apps going to look like? Everybody is trying to figure that out! There are always a couple of key aspects to the apps that really define a new platform: The one aspect I know will be true is that great apps will break the rules. For instance, current Facebook apps require installation for a user to see what they do. I’ve stopped installing apps that don’t explain themself before installation; I’ve already learned to distrust Facebook application developers and get conservative about trying new apps! I’m betting that someone will figure out how to get around that rule pretty soon, so they can gain adoption without having to force installation.
Bottom line: Facebook has all the look and feel of a major new platform, but we probably won’t see what it can do until developers have had the time and discipline to really tear the platform apart and introduce major new ideas. And that means developers have another five months to get it right.